October surprise

(It's no surprise that this phrase has been popping up in political commentary of late; from the archives, originally published 27 October 2020.)

Political columnist and word maven William Safire defined an October surprise as a “last minute disruption before an election; unexpected political stunt, revelation, or diplomatic maneuver that could affect an election’s outcome.” The term is often applied, but not exclusively so, to such events that are orchestrated by one of the political campaigns.

During the 2016 presidential election, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress on 28 October, less than two weeks before the election, announcing that the FBI was reopening its investigation into Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while she had been Secretary of State. Comey’s action, which was contrary to Justice Department policy regarding such announcements that could influence an election, certainly qualified as an October surprise, although there is considerable debate as to whether or not it tipped the scales in favor of Donald Trump’s candidacy.

And with October 2020 nearly over, it doesn’t appear that there will be an October surprise this election cycle—although the bruhaha over Hunter Biden’s laptop, something that will surely be relegated to a footnote, at best, when the histories are written, was clearly a very inept attempt by the Trump campaign to generate one. But regardless of whether or not one appears, for forty years, the fear of an October surprise has hung over every presidential campaign.

The term October surprise dates to 1980, and was apparently coined by someone in Ronald Reagan’s campaign in reference to the campaign’s fear that just before the election President Jimmy Carter would announce the release of the fifty-two American hostages that were being held by Iran. The hostages had been taken on 4 November 1979, exactly one year prior to election day in 1980.

Syndicated political columnist Jack Anderson first reported on the phrase on 10 June 1980:

The biggest fear in Ronald Reagan’s inner circle right now is that Jimmy Carter will get an unexpected boost in the election campaign from an “October surprise.” Reagan’s advisers worry that a startling news development like last year’s “November surprise,” the Tehran hostage seizure, will rally support around a beleaguered president.

There’s not much the Republicans can do to forestall such an unpredictable blockbuster, so they’ll continue to hammer away at the gap between candidate Carter’s promises and President Carter’s achievements.

Meanwhile, Reagan is working on a “July surprise” of his own for unveiling at the Detroit convention. His choice of a running mate, insiders confide, will be someone who can broaden his appeal, rather than a political carbon copy who might please only a narrow base of ultraconservative true believers.

The July surprise turned out to be the naming of Reagan’s former rival for the Republican nomination, George H.W. Bush, as his running mate, just as Anderson reported. But July surprise didn’t become a catchphrase, presumably because July is too far away from a November election to be a surprise to voters.

But October surprise rapidly caught on and became a term of political art, and the term appears in numerous newspaper stories and columns starting in July. As reported by the Ithaca Journal, Reagan’s campaign was going on the record about it by 15 July 1980, although they were cagey about linking the surprise to the hostages, lest they be accused of “playing politics” with the international crisis:

Predicting an “October surprise” by President Carter, top campaign aides to Ronald Reagan said this morning they will establish an “intelligence operation” to monitor Carter’s political activities this fall.

[...]

As for the “October surprise,” neither Casey nor Meese would predict precisely what they had in mind. “it could be almost anything from a summit conference on energy to something happening in South America,” Casey said. “I don’t know if it will be wage and price controls or what.”

While July surprise did not turn out to have any legs, November surprise, however, did have a brief time in the spotlight in 1980. As October drew to a close and the prospect of release of the hostages that month dimmed, sights turned toward it happening in first few days of November. On 17 October 1980, the West Palm Beach Post quoted third-party candidate John Anderson using it, although he was referring to his hopes for surprise victory on election day:

John Anderson said yesterday he is in the race for president until the last polling place is closed, and that President Carter will get a “November surprise” on election day.

This use contrasts with the use of October surprise on the same page of the paper, this time referring to a political endorsement that Reagan received:

Reagan got what his aides call the campaign’s “October surprise” yesterday when Ralph David Abernathy, former head of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, and his colleague Hosea Williams endorsed the Republican nominee.

Such an endorsement would hardly be a surprise today, but in 1980 evangelical support for the Republican party was not a given, and Carter, an evangelical Christian himself, was widely thought to have significant support from that quarter.

But with November looming, the surprise once again turned to the release of the hostages. An editorial in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on 24 October 1980 read:

[Carter] has a positive obligation to be alert to any Iranian initiative that might lead to the release of the 52 Americans—and respond to it.

But to the extent possible, he should do his best to prevent any such solution from taking on the appearance of a “November surprise,” not only in the posture he takes in any private negotiations but also in his comments about Iran on the campaign trail, which ought to be muted.

And on 31 October 1980 the Boston Globe reported that Carter campaign officials had all but given up hope that the hostages would be released before the election:

A spokesman for Carter’s national campaign said privately yesterday that even though it would be a big boost for the President, “in my heart, I don’t think the hostages are coming out in time for the election.” Another Carter campaign operative in Washington said privately: “Reagan’s people were talking about an October surprise. I wish we could give them the hostages as a November surprise, but I doubt it.”

Carter’s State Department, however, would continue to work for the hostages’ release, and that happened on 20 January 1981, Reagan’s inauguration day.

After the 1980 election, November surprise faded from memory—just as July was too early for a surprise, November was too late—while talk of an October surprise continued to crop up every four years.

Yet to be seen is whether or not the concept of an October surprise will continue as early voting and vote-by-mail becomes the standard methods of holding an election and the prospect of an event catching a significant number of voters by surprise in the closing days of a campaign becomes less likely.

Sources:

Anderson, Jack. “2 Big Fish Escape ABSCAM Net” (syndicated). Argus Leader (Sioux Falls, South Dakota), 10 June 1980, 2C. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.

“GOP Expects ‘Surprise.’” Ithaca Journal (New York), 15 July 1980, 1. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.

“The Hostage Temptation” (editorial). Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 24 October 1980, 6. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.

Nyhan, David. “Carter’s Pennsylvania Foes Fear an Election-Day Surprise.” Boston Globe, 31 October 1980, 6. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.

Oxford English Dictionary, third edition, March 2004, s.v. October, n.

Post Wire Services. “Anderson: ‘I Have a Chance.” The Post (West Palm Beach, Florida), 17 October 1980, A2. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.

———. “Reagan Gets Key Support.” The Post (West Palm Beach, Florida), 17 October 1980, A2. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.

Safire, William. Safire’s Political Dictionary. Oxford: Oxford UP, 2008, 487.